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Workshop on Regional Risk Analysis

Ljubljana, Slovenia The Risk Analysis Working Group under the framework of the DCAF Border Security Programme for Western Balkans convened in Ljubljana. Analysts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Moldova and Serbia presented the current state of affairs in the area of border security in their respective countries, based on a descriptive statistical analysis and case analysis (strategic and operational analysis). Special emphasis was on the extreme migration wave along the Balkan Route affecting the region from October last year to this May. Under expert guidance of DCAF staff, a common regional analysis using national data sets and also open source information was produced, resulting in analytical input for the meeting of the Common and Coordinated Operations Working Group that convened few days later in Skopje. Analysts pointed out regional “hot-spots” mostly affected by activities undermining border security and proposed possible geographical areas for the execution of common and coordinated operations. The group recognized that special focus should be given to terrorism-related issues, as the region is a transit area for foreign fighters and “ant-trade” type of weapon smuggling also taking place along the Balkan Route.